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Litbang Kompas: Bobby-Surya Unggul dalam Simulasi Pilkada Sumut 2024 | Databoks Home Litbang Kompas: Bobby-Surya Unggul dalam Simulasi Pilkada Sumut 2024 Litbang Kompas: Bobby-Surya Unggul dalam Simulasi Pilkada Sumut 2024 Elektabilitas Pasangan Calon Gubernur-Wakil Gubernur dalam Simulasi Pilkada Sumatera Utara (Oktober 2024) Sumber : Litbang Kompas, 6 November 2024
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Penulis: Nabilah Muhamad
Editor: Adi Ahdiat
Litbang Kompas merilis hasil survei terkait elektabilitas pasangan cagub-cawagub Pilkada Sumatera Utara 2024.
Pasangan calon (paslon) nomor urut 1, yaitu Bobby Nasution-Surya, unggul dengan elektabilitas 44,9%.
Sedangkan paslon nomor urut 2, Edy Rahmayadi-Hasan Basri Sagala, meraih dukungan dari 28% responden.
Namun, masih ada 27,1% undecided voters atau responden yang belum menentukan pilihannya.
"Tingkat keterpilihan ini tidak dapat dilepaskan dari faktor popularitas dan kesukaan terhadap sosok cagub-cawagubnya," kata tim Litbang Kompas dalam laporannya, Rabu (6/11/2024).
Litbang Kompas menemukan, pasangan mantan Wali Kota Medan 2021-2024 Bobby Nasution dan mantan Bupati Asahan 2021-2024 Surya meraih popularitas 79,2% di kalangan warga Sumatera Utara.
Adapun popularitas eks Gubernur Sumatera Utara 2018-2023 Edy Rahmayadi dan Tenaga Ahli Menteri Agama Hasan Basri di angka 70,5%.
" Dua minggu sisa waktu masa kampanye menjadi momentum penting bagi setiap paslon untuk menguatkan basis dukungan dan mobilisasi suara pemilih," kata tim Litbang Kompas.
Survei ini melibatkan 800 responden yang dipilih secara acak menggunakan metode pencuplikan sistematis bertingkat di provinsi Sumatera Utara.
Pengambilan data dilakukan pada 22-28 Oktober 2024 melalui wawancara tatap muka. Toleransi kesalahan survei ( margin of error ) sekitar 3,46% dan tingkat kepercayaan 95%, dalam kondisi penarikan sampel acak sederhana.
(Baca: Banyak Warga Cukup Puas dengan Kinerja Eks Gubernur Sumut Edy Rahmayadi )
