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Harga Minyak Semester I 2024 Bergejolak, Bagaimana Proyeksi ke Depan? | Databoks Home Harga Minyak Semester I 2024 Bergejolak, Bagaimana Proyeksi ke Depan? Harga Minyak Semester I 2024 Bergejolak, Bagaimana Proyeksi ke Depan? Rata-rata Bulanan Harga Minyak Mentah Brent dan WTI (Januari 2023-Juni 2024) Sumber : World Bank, Juli 2024
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Penulis: Adi Ahdiat
Editor: Adi Ahdiat
Menurut Paolo Agnolucci, ekonom dari Bank Dunia, harga minyak mentah dunia bergejolak pada semester I 2024.
"Selama enam bulan terakhir, harga minyak bergejolak dipengaruhi oleh meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik, pemangkasan produksi OPEC+, dan beberapa tanda menguatnya aktivitas industri global," kata Paolo dalam artikel kajiannya Oil market dynamics: The calm after the storm (14/6/2024).
(Baca: Proyeksi Bank Dunia, Harga Minyak 2024 Lebih Tinggi dari Tahun Lalu )
Berdasarkan data Bank Dunia, rata-rata harga minyak mentah Brent dan West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sempat naik empat bulan berturut-turut selama Januari-April 2024.
Kemudian pada Mei 2024 harganya sempat turun, sebelum akhirnya menguat lagi.
Sampai Juni 2024 rata-rata harga Brent mencapai US$82,56 per barel, naik 0,7% dibanding Mei 2024 (month-on-month /mom). Kemudian harga WTI naik 0,1% (mom) menjadi US$78,89 per barel.
Harga Brent pada Juni 2024 juga masih lebih tinggi sekitar 10% dibanding Juni tahun lalu (year-on-year /yoy), sedangkan harga WTI lebih tinggi 12% (yoy).
Secara umum Bank Dunia memproyeksikan rata-rata harga minyak mentah global mencapai US$84 per barel sepanjang 2024, naik dibanding 2023 yang rata-ratanya US$82,6 per barel.
Namun, Bank Dunia menyatakan ada risiko yang bisa mengerek harga minyak lebih tinggi dari proyeksi, seperti eskalasi konflik geopolitik, serta pasokan minyak yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan.
(Baca: Ini Deretan Konflik Timur Tengah yang Guncang Pasar Minyak Global )
