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Ini Ramalan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kelompok ASEAN Versi World Bank | Databoks
IKLAN

Ini Ramalan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kelompok ASEAN Versi World Bank

Proyeksi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara Kelompok ASEAN Versi World Bank (2024-2026)

Sumber : World Bank, 12 Juni 2024

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Disalin..
IKLAN

Penulis: Erlina F. Santika

Editor: Erlina F. Santika

14/6/2024, 18.50 WIB

World Bank memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi sejumlah negara kelompok ASEAN pada Juni 2024. Vietnam dan Kamboja tumbuh paling impresif pada 2024 hingga 2026.

Vietnam diproyeksi mengantongi pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 5,5% pada tahun ini. Pertumbuhannya bisa naik menjadi 6% pada 2025 dan 6,5% pada 2026.

Kemudian pertumbuhan ekonomi Kamboja diprediksi menyentuh level 5,8% pada 2024. World Bank memproyeksikan ekonomi Negara Angkor Wat ini menyentuh 6,1% pada 2025 dan 6,4% pada 2026.

FIlipina juga masuk tiga besar terimpresif dengan prediksi pertumbuhan sebesar 5,8% pada 2024. Pertumbuhannya diyakini tumbuh tipis menjadi 5,9% pada 2025 dan 2026.

Selanjutnya ada Indonesia yang diprediksi mengantongi pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 5% pada 2024. Persis seperti Filipina, World Bank memprediksikan kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi selanjutnya beda tipis, menjadi 5,1% pada 2025 dan 2026.

Adapun proyeksi paling kecil terjadi pada Myanmar yang hanya tumbuh 1% pada 2024. World Bank bahkan belum memproyeksikan pertumbuhan negara tersebut untuk 2025 dan 2026 karena "ketidakpastian yang tinggi".

Terendah selanjutnya Thailand dengan proyeksi pertumbuhan sebesar 2,4% pada 2024, 2,8% pada 2025, dan 2,9% pada 2026.

World Bank menyebut bahwa pertumbuhan PDB di sebagian besar negara di kawasan Asia Timur dan Pasifik kecuali Tiongkok—termasuk Indonesia, Malaysia, dan Filipina—akan ditopang oleh pertumbuhan konsumsi swasta yang solid yang didukung oleh inflasi yang rendah, penurunan biaya pinjaman, dan kondisi pasar tenaga kerja yang kuat. Namun, investasi swasta dan publik diproyeksikan tetap lesu.

Meningkatnya ketidakpastian, terkait dengan transisi dan konflik politik terkini, termasuk tentang kebijakan perdagangan global, diperkirakan akan melemahkan investasi swasta.

Bersamaan dengan itu, meningkatnya utang publik yang melampaui tingkat prapandemi di sebagian besar negara di kawasan tersebut dan penundaan persetujuan anggaran diantisipasi akan menghambat pertumbuhan investasi publik di beberapa negara.

"Dengan latar belakang ini, hampir setengah dari negara berkembang akan mengalami kesenjangan pendapatan per kapita relatif terhadap negara maju yang melebar selama paruh pertama tahun 2020-an, porsi tertinggi sejak tahun 1990-an," tulis World Bank dalam laporan yang dibukukan pada 4 Juni 2024.

Pertumbuhan pendapatan per kapita di negara berkembang diperkirakan hanya mencapai rata-rata 3% hingga tahun 2026. Menurut World Bank, angkanya jauh di bawah rata-rata 3,8% dalam dekade sebelum Covid-19.

"Banyak negara berkembang diperkirakan tidak akan mengejar ketertinggalan relatif dengan negara maju dalam waktu dekat. Tentu saja, ada beberapa titik terang yang menonjol dalam ekonomi global," kata World Bank.

Secara umum, pertumbuhan global diproyeksikan stabil pada 2,6% pada 2024. World Bank menyebut angka ini bertahan untuk pertama kalinya dalam tiga tahun terakhir, meskipun ada ketegangan geopolitik yang meningkat dan tingkat suku bunga yang tinggi.

"Pertumbuhan ini kemudian diperkirakan akan meningkat menjadi 2,7% pada 2025-2026 di tengah pertumbuhan moderat dalam perdagangan dan investasi," kata World Bank.

(Baca juga: World Bank Revisi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Jadi 5% pada 2024)

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