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H-1 Bulan Pemilu 2024, Elektabilitas Ganjar dan Anies Menguat | Databoks
IKLAN

H-1 Bulan Pemilu 2024, Elektabilitas Ganjar dan Anies Menguat

Elektabilitas Capres dan Cawapres menurut Survei Charta Politika (Desember 2023-Januari 2024)

Sumber : Charta Politika, 21 Januari 2024

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Disalin..
IKLAN

Penulis: Cindy Mutia Annur

Editor: Adi Ahdiat

22/1/2024, 16.58 WIB

Lembaga riset Charta Politika merilis hasil survei terbaru mengenai elektabilitas calon presiden (capres) dan calon wakil presiden (cawapres).

Hasilnya, elektabilitas pasangan nomor urut 3, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD menguat pada Januari 2024, sekitar H-1 bulan menjelang pemilu yang akan digelar pada 14 Februari 2024.

Analis Charta Politika, Nachrudin, mengatakan elektabilitas Ganjar-Mahfud naik dari 26,5% pada Desember 2023, menjadi 28% pada Januari 2024.

"Di survei Januari 2024 ini, (elektabilitas) Ganjar-Mahfud sedikit rebound. Mungkin ini akibat debat capres yang kemarin terlaksana. Juga ada kenaikan (elektabilitas) di pasangan Anies-Muhaimin," kata Nachrudin dalam konferensi pers secara online, Minggu (21/1/2024).

Adapun elektabilitas pasangan nomor urut 1, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar, mencapai 26,7% pada Januari 2024, naik dibanding bulan sebelumnya 26,3%.

Di sisi lain, elektabilitas pasangan nomor urut 2, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, turun dari 43,8% menjadi 42,2% pada periode sama.

"Elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran malah belum ada kenaikan signifikan. Kalau dilihat penurunan di 43,8% ke 42,2% masih di rentang kesalahan, margin of error. Jadi, ada stagnasi di Prabowo dan Gibran,” kata Nachrudin.

Survei Charta Politika juga merekam alasan masyarakat dalam memilih capres dan cawapres. Hasilnya, mayoritas atau 24,8% responden memilih calon pasangan tertentu karena punya karakter merakyat atau perhatian kepada rakyat.

Alasan terbanyak berikutnya adalah tegas atau berwibawa (18,2%), pintar atau berpendidikan (12%), serta jujur atau bersih dari praktik korupsi, kolusi, dan nepotisme (11,3%).

Survei ini melibatkan 1.220 responden berumur 17 tahun atau sudah menikah saat survei dilakukan. Sampel dipilih secara acak atau melalui metode multistage random sampling.

Pengumpulan data dilakukan selama 4-11 Januari 2024 menggunakan metode wawancara tatap muka (face to face). Survei ini memiliki toleransi kesalahan (margin of error) sekitar 2,82% dan tingkat kepercayaan 95%.

(Baca: Apa Pertimbangan Publik dalam Memilih Capres-Cawapres? Ini Surveinya)

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