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Survei Indikator: Prabowo-Gibran Masih Memimpin, Anies-Muhaimin Lampaui Ganjar-Mahfud | Databoks Home Survei Indikator: Prabowo-Gibran Masih Memimpin, Anies-Muhaimin Lampaui Ganjar-Mahfud Survei Indikator: Prabowo-Gibran Masih Memimpin, Anies-Muhaimin Lampaui Ganjar-Mahfud Elektabilitas Tiga Pasangan Capres-Cawapres Menurut Survei Indikator (30 Desember 2023-6 Januari 2024) Sumber : Indikator Politik Indonesia, 18 Januari 2024
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Penulis: Nabilah Muhamad
Editor: Erlina F. Santika
Hasil survei terbaru Indikator Politik menunjukkan, pasangan calon (paslon) nomor urut 2, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka meraih elektabilitas tertinggi dibanding paslon lainnya dalam simulasi Pilpres 2024.
Selama periode survei 30 Desember 2023-6 Januari 2024, Prabowo-Gibran meraih elektabilitas sebesar 45,79%.
Di bawahnya ada paslon nomor urut 1, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar yang terpaut cukup jauh, 25,47%. Disusul paslon nomor urut 3, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD sebesar 22,96%.
Direktur Eksekutif Indikator Politik Indonesia Burhanuddin Muhtadi mengatakan, hasil survei nasional ini menandakan bahwa Pilpres 2024 belum tentu akan berlangsung satu atau dua putaran.
"Satu putaran belum tentu, dua putaran juga belum tentu," kata Burhanuddin dalam pemaparan surveinya secara virtual, Kamis (18/1/2024).
Ia menyebut, pasangan Prabowo-Gibran paling berpeluang besar melaju ke putaran kedua. Namun, siapa pesaing pasangan tersebut belum dapat diprediksi.
"Karena paslon 01 dan 03 punya peluang yang secara statistik sama. Meskipun, secara absolut Anies Baswedan lebih besar peluangnya untuk masuk putaran kedua mendampingi Pak Prabowo," kata Burhanuddin.
Kendati demikian, Burhanuddin menilai, potensi Pilpres 2024 tuntas dalam satu putaran masih terbuka. Menurutnya, hal tersebut bergantung pada konstelasi yang terjadi satu bulan terakhir.
Survei ini melibatkan 1.200 responden berumur 17 tahun atau sudah menikah saat survei dilakukan yang tersebar di seluruh wilayah Indonesia. Sampel dipilih menggunakan metode multistage random sampling .
Kemudian Indikator Politik Indonesia melakukan oversample di 13 Provinsi yakni Aceh, Sumatera Utara, Sumatera Selatan, Lampung, DKI Jakarta, Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah, Jawa Timur, Banten, Bali, NTT, Sulawesi Utara dan Sulawesi Selatan. Maka total sample sebanyak 4.560 responden.
Koleksi data dilakukan pada 30 Desember 2023-6 Januari 2024 menggunakan metode wawancara tatap muka ( face to face) oleh pewawancara yang terlatih.bTingkat kesalahan survei ( margin of error ) sekitar 2% dan tingkat kepercayaan 95%.
(Baca juga: SMRC: Program 1 Keluarga Miskin 1 Sarjana Paling Dibutuhkan Masyarakat )
