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Survei Litbang Kompas, Elektabilitas PDIP Ungguli PKB di Kalangan Pemilih NU | Databoks
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Survei Litbang Kompas, Elektabilitas PDIP Ungguli PKB di Kalangan Pemilih NU

Elektabilitas 10 Partai Politik Pilihan Responden Nahdlatul Ulama/NU di Skala Nasional dan Jawa Timur (Agustus 2023)

Sumber : Litbang Kompas, 6 September 2023

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Penulis: Nabilah Muhamad

Editor: Erlina F. Santika

8/9/2023, 12.39 WIB

Bakal calon presiden Anies Baswedan telah mendeklarasikan Ketua Umum PKB Muhaimin Iskandar atau Cak Imin sebagai pasangannya untuk melaju di Pilpres 2024 mendatang, pada Sabtu (2/9/2023) lalu.

Langkah yang diambil Anies tersebut disinyalir untuk menggaet suara pemilih PKB dari kalangan Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) khususnya di Jawa Timur.

Lantas, seberapa besar peran PKB dalam mendongkrak suara masyarakat di kalangan pemilih NU secara nasional maupun di wilayah Jawa Timur?

Berdasarkan hasil survei Litbang Kompas periode Agustus 2023, PKB bukanlah parpol yang mendulang suara tertinggi dari responden pemilih NU. Warga Nahdliyin paling banyak menjatuhkan pilihan kepada PDIP.

Partai berlogo banteng merah itu mendapatkan 22,2% suara dari total responden pemilih NU secara nasional. Kemudian disusul oleh Gerindra yang meraih elektabilitas sebesar 18,9%. 

Sementara tingkat keterpilihan PKB di kalangan responden NU skala nasional cukup jauh tertinggal, yakni 10,2%. 

Lalu posisinya diikuti oleh Demokrat dan PKS yang memperoleh 7,6% dan 6,7% suara dari basis responden pemilih NU. 

Tim riset kemudian mengecilkan sekup penelitian dan lebih spesifik melihat muara suara responden NU di Jawa Timur. Hasilnya, elektabilitas PKB lebih tinggi dari nasional yakni sebesar 18,6%. Posisinya lebih unggul dari Gerindra yang memperoleh suara 13,7%. 

Namun, elektabilitas PKB tetap di bawah PDIP yang mengantongi 32,9% suara dari responden pemilih NU di Jawa Timur. 

Meskipun begitu, keterpilihan PKB di kalangan NU secara nasional maupun di Jawa Timur masih lebih tinggi dari elektabilitas partai pengusung Anies yaitu Nasdem. 

Partai yang dikepalai oleh Surya Paloh itu hanya mendulang 7,6% suara responden NU nasional dan 6,8% responden NU di Jawa Timur. 

"Potensi elektoral PKB dengan mesin politiknya ini tentu membuka peluang bagi pasangan Anies-Amin untuk mendulang dukungan meski langkah itu tetap tidak mudah," tulis tim Litbang Kompas dalam laporannya, Rabu (6/9/2023). 

Survei periodik Litbang Kompas ini melibatkan 1.364 responden yang dipilih secara acak menggunakan metode pencuplikan sistematis bertingkat di 38 provinsi Indonesia.

Pengambilan data dilakukan pada 27 Juli-7 Agustus 2023 melalui metode wawancara tatap muka. Survei ini memiliki toleransi kesalahan (margin of error) sekitar 2,65% dan tingkat kepercayaan 95%.

(Baca juga: Ini Bakal Capres Pilihan Warga NU menurut Survei Litbang Kompas)

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