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Adu Elektabilitas AHY vs Cak Imin, Siapa Lebih Unggul? | Databoks
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Adu Elektabilitas AHY vs Cak Imin, Siapa Lebih Unggul?

Elektabilitas AHY dan Cak Imin sebagai Cawapres menurut Survei Litbang Kompas (Januari-Agustus 2023)

Sumber : Litbang Kompas, 22 Agustus 2023

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Disalin..
IKLAN

Penulis: Nabilah Muhamad

Editor: Adi Ahdiat

4/9/2023, 15.50 WIB

Anies Baswedan dan Ketua Umum (PKB) Muhaimin Iskandar alias Cak Imin resmi menjadi pasangan bakal calon presiden (capres) dan calon wakil presiden (cawapres) dalam Pemilu 2024.

Deklarasi pasangan ini digelar di Hotel Majapahit Surabaya, Jawa Timur, pada Sabtu (2/9/2023).

Deklarasi Anies-Cak Imin ini mengejutkan sejumlah pihak, lantaran sebelumnya nama Ketua Umum Partai Demokrat Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) kerap digadang-gadang sebagai calon terkuat pendamping Anies.

Adapun berdasarkan hasil survei periodik Litbang Kompas, elektabilitas AHY selalu mengungguli Cak Imin selama Januari-Agustus 2023.

Pada Januari 2023, AHY memperoleh suara 3,7% sebagai cawapres dalam survei Litbang Kompas. Kemudian elektabilitasnya naik ke 4,1% pada Mei 2023, dan meningkat jadi 5,1% pada Agustus 2023.

Di sisi lain, elektabilitas Cak Imin belum pernah menyentuh 1% dalam survei yang sama.

Hasil survei Litbang Kompas mencatat, pada Januari 2023 Cak Imin hanya meraih 0,2% suara sebagai cawapres. Kemudian angkanya naik tipis jadi 0,3% pada Mei 2023, dan menjadi 0,4% pada Agustus 2023.

(Baca: Anies Gandeng Cak Imin, Peta Koalisi Pemilu 2024 Berubah)

Melihat jauhnya angka elektabilitas AHY dan Cak Imin dalam survei Litbang Kompas, kenapa Anies justru menggandeng Ketua Umum PKB untuk maju ke Pilpres 2024?

Direktur Nusakom Pratama Institue Ari Junaedi menduga, penunjukan Cak Imin sebagai pendamping Anies ini tak lepas dari besarnya suara PKB.

Selain itu, pemilih PKB juga mayoritas berasal dari kalangan Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) yang tersebar di Jawa Timur, wilayah yang belum dikuasai Anies.

"Saya menganggap langkah Nasdem menggaet Cak Imin sebagai pendamping Anies tidak terlepas dari potensi suara tapal kuda di Jawa Timur dan basis-basis PKS di mana pun berada," kata Ari, dilansir dari Kompas.com, Jumat (1/9/2023). 

Ari juga menduga, Nasdem tengah memanfaatkan situasi politik terkini, di mana Muhaimin dan PKB merasa terancam karena Golkar dan PAN mulai merapatkan barisan ke koalisi Prabowo.

"Saya anggap sebagai spekulatif politik, Nasdem memanfaatkan betul suasana kebatinan Cak Imin dan PKB yang merasa terbuang usai Golkar dan PAN merapat, serta menguatnya nama Erick Thorir sebagai cawapres Prabowo," kata Ari.

(Baca juga: AHY 'Ditendang' Anies, Apa Pantas Mendampingi Prabowo Subianto? Ini Hasil Surveinya)

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Politik