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Harganya Sempat Meroket pada Mei 2023, Bagaimana Produksi dan Konsumsi Gula Dunia? | Databoks
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Harganya Sempat Meroket pada Mei 2023, Bagaimana Produksi dan Konsumsi Gula Dunia?

Volume Produksi, Konsumsi, dan Ekspor Gula Dunia (2020-2023)

Sumber : Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nation (FAO), Juni 2023

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Penulis: Erlina F. Santika

Editor: Erlina F. Santika

16/6/2023, 15.52 WIB

Harga rata-rata gula dunia melejit pada Mei 2023. Data Bank Dunia (World Bank) menunjukkan, harganya mencapai US$0,56 per kilogram (kg). Capaian ini naik 5,6% dibanding April 2023 (month-on-month/mom), melonjak 30,2% dibanding Mei 2022 (year-on-year/yoy).

Organisasi Pangan dan Pertanian (Food and Agriculture Organization/FAO) menyebut level kenaikan pada Mei 2023 menjadi yang tertinggi sejak Oktober 2011 atau sedekade terakhir. FAO menjelaskan, kenaikan disebabkan oleh pengetatan pasokan global dan juga kondisi produsen sekaligus pengekspor terbesar di dunia, seperti Brasil.

"Tekanan kenaikan harga disebabkan oleh lambatnya awal panen 2023 di Brasil, yang disebabkan oleh hujan lebat. Selain itu, Brasil secara umum terapresiasi (naik) terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat sejak Desember 2022, memengaruhi ekspor dan berkontribusi pada harga gula dunia yang lebih tinggi," tulis FAO dalam laporannya, Juni 2023.

Dalam laporan yang sama, FAO pun menghimpun volume produksi, pemanfaatan atau konsumsi, hingga perdagangan ekspor gula dunia.

Untuk produksinya sudah tembus 169,1 juta ton pada 2020. FAO mengestimasikan produksi pada 2021 mencapai 175,6 juta ton. Sementara prediksinya pada 2022-2023, diperkirakan naik menjadi 177,5 juta ton. Prediksi FAO untuk produksi gula dunia itu naik 1,9 juta ton, atau 1,1% dari produksi 2021-2022.

Sebagian besar kalkulasi itu berangkat dari prospek pemulihan produksi yang signifikan di Brasil.

"Namun, perkiraan ini di bawah ekspektasi awal FAO, karena output yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan sebelumnya di Tiongkok, Uni Eropa, India, Meksiko, dan Thailand," kata FAO.

(Baca juga: Harga Gula Global Melonjak pada Mei 2023, Rekor Termahal Sedekade)

Untuk konsumsi justru lebih besar daripada produksinya, yakni 170 juta ton pada 2020. FAO memperkirakan konsumsi gula 2021-2022 pun meningkat menjadi 174,5 juta ton. Sementara proyeksinya pada 2022-2023 mencapai 176,1 juta ton. Proyeksi ini naik 1,6 juta ton atau 0,9% dari musim sebelumnya.

Secara keseluruhan, kata FAO, pertumbuhan konsumsi tahunan (yoy) sebagian besar menyorot konsumsi dari Afrika dan Asia, didorong oleh pertumbuhan populasi dan pendapatan.

Namun, perkiraan kenaikan konsumsi gula dunia tersebut dibatasi oleh proyeksi perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi global pada 2023 dan tingginya harga gula dunia.

"Pertumbuhan asupan gula dunia yang diantisipasi, dikombinasikan dengan revisi turun perkiraan produksi global, akan mengurangi surplus produksi gula dunia menjadi 1,4 juta ton dari 4,9 juta ton yang diperkirakan sebelumnya," tulis FAO.

Terakhir, terkait perdagangan atau ekspor, volumenya sudah menyentuh 60,8 juta ton pada 2020. Sementara estimasinya pada 2021 mencapai 61,3 juta ton. Menariknya, FAO justru memprediksi ada penurunan ekspor gula dunia pada 2022-2023, yang menjadi 60,7 juta ton. Ini setara dengan penurunan 1% dari perkiraan volume 2021-2022.

"Kontraksi tersebut merupakan hasil dari antisipasi pengurangan pasokan ekspor di Uni Eropa, India, dan Meksiko, lebih dari mengimbangi perkiraan pengiriman yang lebih besar dari Brasil," FAO menjelaskan.

Sementara dari sisi impor, FAO mengatakan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang melambat disertai dengan tingginya harga gula dunia diprakirakan akan menekan permintaan gula dunia.

Terlebih di Tiongkok, pembeli gula internasional terbesar, impor diperkirakan akan menurun untuk musim kedua berturut-turut di tengah harga gula dunia yang tinggi dan ketersediaan dalam negerinya yang memadai.

"Sebaliknya, impor gula oleh Uni Eropa diperkirakan meningkat tajam dari tahun lalu karena harga domestik yang tinggi dan produksi yang lebih rendah," kata FAO.

(Baca juga: Thailand, Pemasok Gula Impor Terbesar ke Indonesia pada 2022)

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