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Tiga Lembaga Internasional Prediksi Ekonomi RI Turun pada 2023 | Databoks
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Tiga Lembaga Internasional Prediksi Ekonomi RI Turun pada 2023

Proyeksi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia menurut ADB, OECD, IMF, dan Bank Dunia (2022-2023)

Sumber : Asian Development Bank (ADB), Oktober-Desember 2022

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Penulis: Adi Ahdiat

Editor: Adi Ahdiat

27/12/2022, 15.40 WIB

Sejumlah lembaga internasional sudah merilis laporan terkait proyeksi ekonomi Indonesia 2023. Secara umum, proyeksinya cenderung melambat.

Dalam laporan Asian Development Outlook edisi Desember 2022, Asian Development Bank (ADB) memperkirakan ekonomi Indonesia tahun ini bisa tumbuh 5,4%, tapi turun jadi 4,8% pada tahun depan.

"Pada 2022 konsumsi masyarakat Indonesia terus tumbuh hingga melampaui masa pra-pandemi. Ledakan ekspor komoditas primer masih berlanjut dan ada pemulihan kunjungan wisatawan. Tapi, pada 2023 pertumbuhan akan tertahan karena ekspor barang yang melambat, seiring melemahnya ekonomi negara-negara maju," kata ADB.

Ramalan serupa disampaikan Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Organisasi yang beranggotakan puluhan negara maju tersebut memprediksi ekonomi Indonesia pada 2022 bisa tumbuh 5,3%, kemudian turun ke 4,7% pada 2023.

"Kenaikan harga komoditas dan arus investasi yang masih kuat membantu Indonesia melawan tantangan ekonomi global. Namun, permintaan domestik dan pertumbuhan konsumsi masyarakat tertahan oleh laju inflasi," kata mereka dalam OECD Economic Outlook edisi November 2022.

OECD juga menilai ada sejumlah risiko yang bisa menghambat laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di masa mendatang.

"Persoalan energi, pupuk, pangan, dan ketegangan sosial menjelang Pemilu 2024 adalah risiko utama. Kebijakan moneter harus tetap ketat, sementara dukungan untuk rumah tangga rentan harus tetap terjaga," saran mereka.

Tak hanya ADB dan OECD, dalam World Economic Outlook edisi Oktober 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) memproyeksikan ekonomi Indonesia bakal turun dari 5,3% pada 2022 menjadi 5% pada 2023.

IMF juga mewanti-wanti adanya risiko yang bisa mengerek inflasi lebih tinggi tahun depan, terutama di sektor energi dan pangan.

"Harga energi akan tetap sangat sensitif terhadap perang di Ukraina dan potensi konflik geopolitik lainnya. Peristiwa cuaca ekstrem bisa merusak pasokan pangan global, hingga mengerek harga bahan makanan pokok dan membawa konsekuensi mengerikan bagi negara-negara miskin," kata IMF.

Tapi, tak semua proyeksi bernada suram. Dalam laporan East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update edisi Oktober 2022 Bank Dunia justru meramalkan ekonomi Indonesia bisa stabil dengan tingkat pertumbuhan 5,1% pada 2022 dan 2023.

Kendati begitu, Bank Dunia tetap mewanti-wanti adanya faktor risiko perlambatan ekonomi, mulai dari turunnya permintaan ekspor komoditas, sampai kenaikan suku bunga di negara lain yang bisa mendorong arus modal keluar (capital outflow) serta menambah beban pembayaran utang luar negeri.

(Baca: Banyak Warga RI Merasa Biaya Hidup Bakal Naik pada 2023)

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