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Inflasi Tinggi, The Fed Berpeluang Kembali Menaikkan Suku Bunga | Databoks
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Inflasi Tinggi, The Fed Berpeluang Kembali Menaikkan Suku Bunga

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Laju Inflasi dan Suku Bunga Amerika (Jan 2000-Apr 2018)

Sumber : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Federal Reserve, Bloomberg L.P., 2018

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12/6/2018, 12.00 WIB

Kebijakan pemerintah Amerika Serikat (AS) memangkas pajak (korporasi dan individu) berdampak positif terhadap perekonomian Negeri Paman Sam. Sehingga ekonomi AS tumbuh di atas 2% sejak triwulan I 2017 (YoY). Dengan ekspansinya perekonomian membuat laju inflasi negeri adidaya tersebut juga bergerak naik seperti yang terlihat pada grafik di bawah ini. Kondisi ini membuka peluang bank sentral AS (The Fed) akan kembali menaikkan suku bunga acuannya. 

Berdasarkan konsensus para ekonom, bank sentral Amerika bakal menaikkan suku bunga The Fed sebesar 25 basis poin (bps) menjadi 2% dalam sidang yang akan berlangsung pada 12-13 Juni 2018. Ini diperkuat dengan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Amerika pada triwulan I 2018 tumbuh 2,8% (YoY) dan laju inflasi pada April mencapai 2,5% (YoY) dari target sebesar 2%. Tingginya inflasi membuat The Fed berpeluang menaikkan suku bunga acuannya sebanyak empat kali sepanjang tahun ini.

Membaiknya makroekonomi AS berdampak pula terhadap pasar keuangan dunia, tidak terkecuali dengan Indonesia. Naiknya inflasi membuat imbal hasil (yield) US Treasury bill bergerak naik membuat kebutuhan pembiayaan anggaran AS meningkat sehingga memicu kembalinya dolar ke pasar finansial Amerika. Alhasil, suku bunga bank sentral dunia akan mengikuti menaikkan suku bunganya untuk menahan pelarian modal seperti yang dilakukan Bank Indonesia menaikkan suku bunga acuannya sebesar 50 bps pada Mei 2018.

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